Simulated Estimates of Pre-Pregnancy and Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in the US: 1980 to 2008

PURPOSE To simulate national estimates of prepregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in non-Hispanic white (NHW) and non-Hispanic black (NHB) women. METHODS Prepregnancy diabetes and GDM were estimated as a function of age, race/ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI) using South Carolina live singleton births from 2004-2008. Diabetes risk was applied to a simulated population. Age, natality and BMI were assigned to women according to race- and age-specific US Census, Natality and National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) data, respectively. RESULTS From 1980-2008, estimated GDM prevalence increased from 4.11% to 6.80% [2.68% (95% CI 2.58%-2.78%)] and from 3.96% to 6.43% [2.47% (95% CI 2.39%-2.55%)] in NHW and NHB women, respectively. In NHW women prepregnancy diabetes prevalence increased 0.90% (95% CI 0.85%-0.95%) from 0.95% in 1980 to 1.85% in 2008. In NHB women from 1980 through 2008 estimated prepregnancy diabetes prevalence increased 1.51% (95% CI 1.44%-1.57%), from 1.66% to 3.16%. CONCLUSIONS Racial disparities in diabetes prevalence during pregnancy appear to stem from a higher prevalence of prepregnancy diabetes, but not GDM, in NHB than NHW.